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In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.

We discuss:

• Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30];

• Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45];

• Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30];

• Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15];

• The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15];

• A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [41:00];

• The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30];

• Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45];

• Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15];

• The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:04:45];

• The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30];

• The personal and societal consequences of avoiding